A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
