Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
